i count on you! always contender for the win. always the player who must be beaten to have a chance on the win. always inspirational moves "made by Snotty"
external market card draws:
i had taken screenshots of the complete game log, so it was no problem to look it up.
in 3/8 geigerm drew a -3 tile.
in 5/8 you drew the second -3 tile.
and one move later the last -3 tile to blow up the external market.
it can take 3-7 draws for that to happen. so only 3 draws was worst case indeed.
when two -3 tokens have been drawn before, chances are 40% for another shipment, because only 1 space left then.
that means only four tiles (0/0/-1/-1) could enable another shipment.
but six tiles would blow up the market.
tile distribution is:
on average the Distant Market will hit zero after ~4.5 distant market tokens are revealed.
from 3 draws up to 7 draws the likelihoods are:
3 draws: 18%
4 draws: 35%
5 draws: 30%
6 draws: 14%
7 draws: 3%
another very interesting screenshot from a BGG post: