Thanks for starting this thread. Here in the Bay Area, it’s been full-on loopy nutburgers for a month at this point. I mean, more so than usual.
Grocery stores are hit or miss as far as whether they have anything, but most things seem available if you go in the morning on a weekday. People seem to be escalating in their panic-mindedness, however, and I expect another round of empty shelves soon.
Just yesterday my son’s preschool sent out a message saying they were staying open, yet this morning I got the distinct impression that they are about to announce today that they will be closing (for at least 3 weeks, by my guess). I work from home, and my wife’s org told everyone to work from home as of last week, so it will be a crowded house for a while (and not in the “Don’t Dream it’s Over” way).
From everything I’ve read, kids are either not getting sick or getting such low level symptoms as to be undetected, so I’m not very worried about my son in that regard, but I’m friends with some older folks and am worried about them and my wife’s parents.
Some things I’ve learned from medical friends to keep in mind: Stats from South Korea, the country with perhaps the most comprehensive testing program, give some hope: how many people there under 30 have died? Zero. How many people under 40? One. How many under 50? One.
Also, the current case number in the US is likely much higher than what is being assumed since we are testing very sparsely (for idiotic reasons I won’t get into). Conversely, since all deaths attributed to the virus are very widely reported, the mortality numbers among infected are close to accurate and therefore the percentage rate of mortality is much lower than we’re estimating.
And what little testing we are doing is in no way statistically representative because it is not random, but focused on people who show symptoms (and their contacts). Severe cases are therefore over-represented in the data we have.
One last thing to keep in mind in the coming weeks–no matter what stats people start throwing at us, we will not be able to distinguish between an actual increase in cases and the results of improved testing. This is because both will be happenning in parallel. With better and more widespread testing, we’ll certainly detect more cases, but we won’t know whether that equates to more actual existing cases in three weeks than the number of existing cases we have right now. So it’s going to begin to look like case numbers are rising, and they might be, but not at the rate widespread testing will suggest (because our current baseline is so inaccurate).
I don’t know if any of that is helpful to you, but it made me feel somehow better : /