Current Warfairs

Miscellaneous Blather
#101

…I’ll allow it.


Another TEL being hit, and there are secondaries from the missile warheads. I’m going to presume that the way things have developed have resulted in Russian battlegroups becoming fragmented, and cannot provide coverage even for other units in the same battlegroup. The Buk should have been accompanied by Tor/Tunguska/Strela systems and protected. Russian air defence is rightly respected, and it’s just not set up here. It seems like they were planning for an unopposed entry, and to establish an AD umbrella at leisure.
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#102

Lmao, haven’t had coffee yet and legit thought that was what the authors were listed as

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#103

I’m sure it’s more formal than that: A Bunch of Guys, et al.

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#104

The Russians have surprisingly not been able to establish either air superiority or protect their AD ground units. It’s a real head scratcher.

#105

Ukrainians definitely not getting it all their way.


The Russians will step up artillery fires, and it’s one of their genuine strengths. Expect a lot more casualties, both civilian and military. I’ve seen photos on Twitter of ‘dud’ rockets hitting towns like Kharkiv; they’re not duds, they’re cluster munitions dispensers.
#106

For example.

#107

A little dated but still sound in principle, in that the Russians adhere greatly to Soviet tactics, including the overwhelming use of artillery and stand off rocket fire.

This is also a great read and a bit more timely, in that it wasn’t authored nearly 40 years ago lol

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#108

Russia has in recent years carried out substantial reforms to its military forces, which have increased capability in several key areas

A small problem with that is, Serdyukov’s reforms were rolled back, sometimes selectively, sometimes wholesale, by his successor and political enemy, Shoygu. I won’t say that’s been completely responsible for the current mess, but it’s contributed a lot. Much like Serdyukov, Shoygu has little (read: essentially no) military experience, but has made up for that by being almost completely corrupt. Serdyukov made himself unpopular by being a reformer, including, hilariously, making general officers stop being massive fat cunts, by introducing a physical standard they had to pass, to remain in service. Needless to say, the Russian military decided they liked an old broom better. The Russian reaction to having more professionals in the armed forces is one of polite disbelief at best, read the comments here.

#109

Utterly incompetent.
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#110

Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.

Just saying.

#111

In that case, given their strength, they have exactly five days left to conquer Ukraine, according to their invasion plan.

#112

Coming out of the 2016 US election, Russia looked like a Social Media super powered nation, that could influence and manipulate the world.

It had to have been a fluke of timing and probably related to the very divisive state of Clinton/Trump.

Because it is clear that they do not have that ability any more. Ukraine is killing it in the social story telling, and it is impressive as hell.

Headlines I have seen today that make me laugh and cry at the same time:

Ukraine invites Russian mothers to fetch captured soldiers

Ukrainian authorities have informed citizens that you don’t need to declare captured Russian tanks or any equipment they pick up as personal income

Ukrainians provide hot food and tea to a Russian soldier who voluntarily laid down his arms.

Two Ukrainian farmers stole Russian advanced Tor SAM system

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#113

You have to enjoy this. It is the law. Fucking Hell.

#114

I am in the market for a T-90. I need to check with the California DMV first to see if my class C driver’s license is sufficient to take it out for a spin. Also shipping costs are probably a bitch.

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#115

Just finding 4 primo abandoned Tunguska AA vehicles, and destroying them.

And the Russians kiss their stock market goodbye.

#116

Going to start this with “war is bad”, but do you think that somehow the media coverage is missing something by simply dismissing Putin as a crazy senile mad man (who is also 10 years younger than those ruling the US… but I digress…

I don’t think he is an idiot - he would have had people putting todays scenarios to him.

So if we assume that there is some level of intelligence and preparedness, how does this play out?

  1. Knows that NATO is a defensive alliance.
  2. Believes that Ukraine won’t be the reason NATO changes that stance
  3. Believes there is no case for Ukraine to join EU
  4. Believes that although there will be Sabre rattling, no one will militarily oppose him.

I think he gets Ukraine, but it will be difficult to hold on to.

#117

I don’t think he’s senile/mad/crazy. I think he’s getting worse with age, as we all tend to do, and he believes that Russia needs to control Ukraine, either openly or not. Bear in mind the Euromaidan appears to have caught everyone flat-footed, in that Ukraine was just as corrupt as say, Belarus, and there was an uprising that no-one expected. The only way for Putin to understand a popular uprising is that it was caused by NATO/EU/The West. This is also the only way tankies in the West understand it, the Ukrainian people themselves have no volition, it’s just NATO forcing them to do what they want (tankies also believe Russia is still communist). Prior to that, Ukraine was safely under Russian influence, because Putin doesn’t count countries as ‘buffer’ zones unless they’re also under his thumb.

Putin wasn’t counting on any serious NATO support; it’s clear to me that NATO has done almost everything short of militarily joining in. The supply of arms means the Russian superiority in armour is blunted, and their dominance of the skies is partial at best. NATO is obviously sharing intel with Ukraine, and the publicity before the invasion obviously made a lot of “Putin won’t invade.” takes look like absolute shit, when it happened. Putin definitely wasn’t counting on widespread sanctions, nor was he counting on the EU reacting within a matter of days. The EU response to this has been shockingly fast.

In an ideal world, for Putin, there would have been a Trump re-election, and the US would have either left NATO, or done nothing at all and made sure NATO response from other countries was minimal.

Barring a major change, frustration will set in and Russia will use more artillery fires on civilians, and attempt to blunt-force their way in to Kyiv. They will take horrendous casualties, but unless something major changes, they will succeed eventually, at tremendous cost. They are currently pausing to replenish, but that won’t last, and Putin will put the boot in on those who fail to perform. The bombing and shelling of Kyiv will be tremendous, I don’t think they have the troops to take it. I’m seeing a lot of dead VDV troops on social media; likely because common infantry conscripts cannot or will not perform, overuse of better quality troops is occurring, and they’re taking disproportionate casualties, making the problem worse.

Ukraine will be bounced into the EU in record time at this rate, and after perhaps another partition, the remainder will find itself in NATO.

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#118

My son today says “I am cheering for Ukraine - Russia already has lots of land”

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#119

I agree that the popular take “he’s a madman!” is a really bad one. He’s not crazy, although he did have a history of recklessness as a young university student and KGB agent-in-training. But clinically insane, no.

From a historical point of view, losing influence over Ukraine (with or without the Russian “The” prefix) would understandably be a disaster of strategic importance to any Russian leader. Putin, Yeltsin, even Gorby, it doesn’t matter. Moscow nearly fell twice in the past two centuries, both times the invasion came from western European nations that are now NATO members, and both times the path was through the Belarus/Ukraine corridor. From the Russian POV, Putin would be crazy NOT to take the threat seriously.

#120

That doesn’t make sense to me. France wouldn’t be crazy not to take the threat of German invasion through Belgium seriously (and, heck, Belgium also wouldn’t be crazy not to take that seriously) because there hasn’t been any indication that Germany has or seeks enough military power to make that possible. If that changes, sure, worry about it then. But when NATO essentially lacks the capability to invade, what’s the point? Plus, “I don’t want to border NATO, so I’ll extend my borders to be adjacent to three NATO countries and fill the new territory with people who actually would greet a NATO invasion as liberators” is not reasoning that would appeal to me.

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