Yup, I disagreed with the premise too but thought it was an interesting thought exercise
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Naomi Wu is very smart and alongside her tech stuff, often comments on Chinese issues from a Chinese perspective. She regularly has some good threads (that I now struggle to find) on what the Chinese response to something is likely to be, e.g. their response to a new batch of Oz subs is not going to be Chinese subs, but more ASW, especially drones and sonobuoys, using AI as part of a semi-autonomous network.
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Hey Siri, play REM’s It’s the End of the World as We Know It
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https://archive.is/ttz2t
The US will still be able to track them with space-based radar. I do wonder about interception though. I presume the anti-satellite missiles I’ve seen could do the job as it’s a very low orbit. Not sure about overwhelming US ABM defences though, are there any systems permanently established? I thought they were all abandoned when it became obvious with MIRVs that they would be trivial to overwhelm.
I think interception is the issue. Because they’re so fast and have unpredictable flight paths hypersonics are virtually indefensible.
Eta: the concern also revolves around the fact that since they’re not nuclear warheads an enemy may be more apt to use them; the fine print being that the kinetic energy behind weapons of this type is akin to a nuclear explosion.
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But slower than ICBMs, so still valid targets for systems like the RIM-161. It becomes more a matter of actually investing in defences, since the targets are predictable.
Even used just as purely kinetic projectiles they’ll be classed as WMDs and responded to in kind.
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I think that’s enough to blunt any Russian armoured thrust, but Ukraine still has an enormous problem defending against both Russian aggression and Russian presence in Belarus, which constitutes a serious threat. Ultimately intervention will be needed to stop the Russians in case of an invasion. Without that, another bite will be taken out of the country, at best.
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No-one had a plan.
A little light invading.
Hey Siri, play REM’s it’s The End of the World as We Know It
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Everything is cool, everything is fine, these missiles aren’t nuclear.
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Germany has been saving this one up.
Gentlemen, start your engines.
I do not favor this development.
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Cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv being targeted was expected, due to their proximity to the border, but they’ve immediately started hitting Kyiv with missiles too.